THWBets Newsletter

THWBets for 06/05/2022

June 05, 2022

The latest odds, lines, picks & props from the THWBets crew.

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 06/05/2022 edition:

By Shawn Wilken on Jun 05, 2022 10:30 am

The Tampa Bay Lightning host the New York Rangers for Game 3 but have a 0-2 series deficit to overcome. While they’re not in full-panic mode yet, a sense of urgency can be felt for the Lightning. They came close in Game 2, keeping the score tight, but the Rangers held on to a 3-2 lead to secure another win at home. Can they even up the series with the energy of their home crowd? This is where you’ll find everything, including team win odds, the over/under, and point spreads.

Steven Stamkos – Anytime Goal-Scorer (+140)

Should the Lightning get back into this series, they’ll need their captain Steven Stamkos to be at his best. In Games 3 and 4 in two series, he’s lit the lamp three times, providing his team the leadership to get through the grind. Over the course of his career, he’s been an offensive juggernaut, and he’ll aim to help his team out of a tough situation. The Lightning will need more than two goals tonight, and Stamkos is someone who can help achieve that.

At +140, it’s intriguing to put a few dollars on him with how well he’s played so far in the series against the Rangers. While they’ve been outclassed in two games, the Lightning are still playing at a high calibre and are getting their chances. They need to start completing their plays and solving Igor Shesterkin before they’re put on the ropes and miss out on their chance for three consecutive Stanley Cup titles.

Victor Hedman – Player Points (Over 0.5, -175)

The post-game show after Game 2 highlighted some concerning patterns of Victor Hedman‘s play. The 2018 Norris Trophy winner appeared lost at certain points in his own end, and the concern grew over the idea that he’s become overwhelmed. He was held off the scoresheet in Game 1 but picked up a primary assist on the Lightning’s first goal the following game.

While Tampa Bay has the tools across all four lines, they still need Hedman to contribute on offense if they hope to keep up with New York. He’s a proven winner at this stage and knows how to play under pressure, so expect him to be back to his usual form. The Lightning are excellent at forcing teams to take penalties using their speed and tenacity. If they can get on the man advantage early, look for Hedman to make them pay.

Chris Kreider – Anytime Goal-Scorer (+200)

Scoring three times in his last four games, Chris Kreider has managed to elevate his game to the next level. That’s not good news for Tampa Bay, given the fact that he’s coming off a 52-goal regular season. He’s come up clutch for the Rangers in the last two series and has a goal already against the Lightning. Kreider is also averaging a higher goals-per-game rate this postseason compared to the rest of his career.

The tricky part about figuring him out is that he doesn’t take as many shots as someone who scored over 50. In his last five games, he’s fired more than two shots on goal only once, and he scored twice on that occasion. Kreider doesn’t need many looks because when he gets an opportunity, he makes good on it. In seven road games thus far, he has four goals to his name, and he’ll look to add some more against the Lightning.

Odds via Yahoo and BetMGM.

The Hockey Writers & THWBets promotes responsible gaming, and provides this content as opinion and analysis with no guarantees or assurances.For more information about responsible gambling, including help for problem gambling behaviour, please visit these great resource pages:If you’re in Canada, Rogers Sports & Media has put together a great information and resources page.If you’re in the United States, MGMResorts has a great page for gambling problem resources.

By Rob Couch on Jun 05, 2022 10:15 am

In today’s betting guide, the Texas Rangers go for the series win against the Seattle Mariners, while the St. Louis Cardinals’ bats look to stay hot against the Chicago Cubs on the road.

Texas Rangers (-130) vs Seattle Mariners (+110)

The first two games of the series between the Rangers and the Mariners have been low-scoring and tightly contested and with the pitchers on the mound for both teams, it should be a perfect three-for-three in that regard. The Rangers have ace Martin Perez starting with his 1.42 ERA (earned run average) and 0.93 WHIP (walks+hits per inning pitched) but doesn’t have a high strikeout rate. George Kirby of the Mariners has a higher strikeout rate and peppers the strike zone, only walking three batters over 26 innings this season.

The batting for the Rangers is the problem, but big free agent signing Marcus Semien has finally appeared to be getting going offensively over the past two weeks. Seattle’s offense has been above average recently but will have a very tough time scoring runs against Perez regardless. The longer he stays in the game, the lower the score will remain. Take the Rangers and under (U7.5, +100).

Chicago Cubs (+110) vs St. Louis Cardinals (-130)

The Cardinals have great odds considering the team records, home/away record of the teams, divisional records, pitching matchup, and last 10 games. The Cardinals have eight more wins, six fewer losses within their division, have a much better record on the road (15-12) than the Cubs have at home (11-19), and won yesterday’s game against the Cubs but have split the series heading into today 2-2.

The Cardinals also happen to have Adam Wainwright starting for them opposed by Jordan Steele who is 1-5 with a 5.40 ERA and a concerning 1.58 WHIP. Steele can strike batters out, but it will be a very tall task to slow the bats of Paul Goldschmidt, one of the league’s hottest batters, and the Cardinals down in this one to improve his numbers at all. Take the Cardinals and the over (O8.5, -105).

Odds via Yahoo and BetMGM.

The Hockey Writers & THWBets promotes responsible gaming, and provides this content as opinion and analysis with no guarantees or assurances.For more information about responsible gambling, including help for problem gambling behaviour, please visit these great resource pages:If you’re in Canada, Rogers Sports & Media has put together a great information and resources page.If you’re in the United States, MGMResorts has a great page for gambling problem resources.

By Kerry Collins on Jun 05, 2022 10:00 am

There are a bunch of great National League matchups on Sunday. The New York Mets and Los Angeles Dodgers wrap up a three-game set between two of the league’s best teams, while the San Diego Padres and Milwaukee Brewers face off again in another high-profile contest. This betting guide has insight into the best value picks for those games based on recent trends.

San Diego Padres (+110) vs Milwaukee Brewers (-135)

After dropping the series opener, the Padres have won the last two games of this series, and they haven’t allowed Milwaukee to score in either of those wins. San Diego’s Mike Clevinger will be getting his first start since May 17 when he hit the injured list with a triceps strain after making three starts. He was sharp in those three starts but will likely be on a pitch count. Brewers starter Eric Lauer has also been good, so lean towards the Brewers money line (-135) in this one.

The totals have been low this entire series, and the over has hit in two of the last three games. It’s going to be tough for the Padres to shut out the Brewers in three straight games. However, both of these starters are pretty difficult to pile up runs on. This is another low total, and the best play is probably to lean towards the under (U7.5, -110), but the uncertainty of Clevinger’s return means this total might be one to stay away from.

New York Mets (+150) vs Los Angeles Dodgers (-185)

After a sizzling start to the season, Dodgers starter Julio Urias has been up and down, and the Dodgers have lost four of his last five starts. For the Mets, a Trevor Williams start means a heavy dose of the bullpen is coming, and New York used six relievers in Saturday’s victory. With Williams struggles on the road, and the Mets bullpen a bit used up, this looks like a spot to back Urias to change his luck. Lean toward the Dodgers (-185), and consider the L.A. run line (-1.5, +105).

The over has hit in four out of Williams’ last five appearances, and his ERA is 5.02 on the road. Despite Urias’ recent struggles, the Dodgers have gone under in eight of his last nine appearances – and the total was equal to or lower than Sunday’s total of nine runs. Both of these teams score fewer runs in day games, as well. The under (U9, -120) looks like a pretty good play here.

Odds via BetMGM

The Hockey Writers & THWBets promotes responsible gaming, and provides this content as opinion and analysis with no guarantees or assurances.For more information about responsible gambling, including help for problem gambling behaviour, please visit these great resource pages:If you’re in Canada, Rogers Sports & Media has put together a great information and resources page.If you’re in the United States, MGMResorts has a great page for gambling problem resources.

By Rob Couch on Jun 05, 2022 09:45 am

In today’s MLB betting guide, the Arizona Diamondbacks look to bounce back against the Pittsburgh Pirates, while we have a last place National League matchup between the Cincinnati Reds and the Washington Nationals.

Pittsburgh Pirates (+115) vs Arizona Diamondbacks (-140)

The Pirates and the Diamondbacks are set to play in the third game of their three-game series after splitting the first two games. Both have been tight with the Pirates taking yesterday’s game with a two-run walk-off home run in the bottom of the ninth inning. The Diamondbacks are much better than anyone thought heading into this season and they will be looking to bounce back and keep pace in the wild card race.

The Diamondbacks have the upper hand due to their ace getting the mound today in Zac Gallen who has just a 2.33 (ERA) earned run average and 0.91 WHIP (walks+hits per inning pitched). On the Pirates’ side, Zach Thompson has had a below-average season and it bodes well for a number of Arizona batters who can pull their batting average and on-base percentage up over .200 over the past couple of weeks. Gallen is without a recorded loss this season and always gives the Diamondbacks a chance to win when he’s pitching. Take them to win and the teams to stay under (U7.5, +100).

Cincinnati Reds (-175) vs Washington Nationals (+145)

It is the battle of the two last-place teams in the National League when the Reds welcome the Nationals. The Nationals have won Games 2 and 3 of the four-game series as they are set to play the series finale. Every game has gone over as pitching isn’t either team’s strong suit. Today shouldn’t be much different as Nationals’ starter Patrick Corbin hasn’t had a good season, which is magnified by the 1-8 record.

The Reds’ pitcher on the mound is Luis Castillo who has played just half the season but provided the team with decent pitching. He doesn’t allow a ton of runners on base, which should be able to cool the bats of a couple of Nationals in Nelson Cruz and Josh Bell. The Reds are rightfully the favourite in this one, so take them and the over (O9, -115).

Odds via Yahoo and BetMGM.

The Hockey Writers & THWBets promotes responsible gaming, and provides this content as opinion and analysis with no guarantees or assurances.For more information about responsible gambling, including help for problem gambling behaviour, please visit these great resource pages:If you’re in Canada, Rogers Sports & Media has put together a great information and resources page.If you’re in the United States, MGMResorts has a great page for gambling problem resources.

By Kerry Collins on Jun 05, 2022 09:30 am

There’s a pretty good slate of Sunday games, including a great interleague tilt between the Los Angeles Angels and Philadelphia Phillies. It’s a pretty light schedule for the American League, but the Minnesota Twins and Toronto Blue Jays wrap up what has been an exciting three-game series. This betting guide will offer the best value plays for those two games.

Los Angeles Angels (-105) vs Philadelphia Phillies (-115)

It’s been a pretty rough stretch for the Angels. They’ve lost 10 in a row, and it’s not like a bunch of those games have been close. Phillies starter Kyle Gibson has lost his last three starts, but that’s mostly on the bullpen. He’s given up just two runs in each of those starts, and he’s pitched into the sixth inning in two of them. It’s impossible to trust the Angels right now, so take the Phillies money line (-115) here.

The totals have been tricky during the Angels’ ridiculous skid. Los Angeles has scored a total of five runs in its last five games, but they’re getting rocked so the over has hit in five of the Angels’ last seven games. Angels starter Patrick Sandoval has been serviceable this season but got demolished in his last start to the tune of five runs in three innings. Look for the over (O8.5, -115) to land here again.

Minnesota Twins (+165) vs Toronto Blue Jays (-200)

These teams split the first two games for their series, piling up 27 runs along the way. Blue Jays starter Kevin Gausman has been pretty good this season, but he’s been atrocious against the Twins in his career, allowing 33 runs across 37 innings pitched. Despite Saturday’s loss, Minnesota has won nine of their last 12 meetings with the Blue Jays in Toronto. Take a look at the Twins on the money line (+165) in this one, and the run line (+1.5, -125) has value, too.

Despite the fireworks of the first two games, there probably won’t be as many runs scored in this one. Both pitchers have been great all season, especially lately. Toronto has won six of Gausman’s last eight starts, and he hasn’t allowed more than three earned runs in any of those. The Twins have Devin Smeltzer on the mound, and he has allowed just four runs in his four starts combined. Take the under with a great number (U8, -105) in this one.

Odds via BetMGM

The Hockey Writers & THWBets promotes responsible gaming, and provides this content as opinion and analysis with no guarantees or assurances.For more information about responsible gambling, including help for problem gambling behaviour, please visit these great resource pages:If you’re in Canada, Rogers Sports & Media has put together a great information and resources page.If you’re in the United States, MGMResorts has a great page for gambling problem resources.

By Shawn Wilken on Jun 05, 2022 09:15 am

The Tampa Bay Lightning host the New York Rangers for Game 3 but have a 0-2 series deficit to overcome. While they’re not in full-panic mode yet, a sense of urgency can be felt for the Lightning. They came close in Game 2, keeping the score tight, but the Rangers held on to a 3-2 lead to secure another win at home. Can they even up the series with the energy of their home crowd? This is where you’ll find everything, including team win odds, the over/under, and point spreads.

New York Rangers (+145) vs Tampa Bay Lightning (-175)

If the odds for Game 3 are of any indication, Tampa Bay should win and get back into the series. They were handed a second consecutive postseason loss for the first time in three years and now face some adversity after sweeping the Florida Panthers. The Lightning were tightly matched against the Toronto Maple Leafs, but Andrei Vasilevskiy managed to turn on the heat late into the series. He’s been solid for the most part, but second-best in a series against the Rangers won’t be good enough.

The Rangers got a second goal from Mike Zibanejad, someone the Lightning don’t want catching momentum. He’s being carefully watched, and defenders are on him whenever the puck touches his stick. Unfortunately for them, Zibanejad is a sneaky player who finds open spaces, and he’s already put two past Vasilevskiy so far. The Rangers are red-hot right now, and it’s tough to bet against them. Their odds to win (+145) bring incentive to put some cash on them to take a 3-0 series lead.

Over/Under

We’ve gone two-for-two with the over/under on total goals so far, so why not make it three? The Lightning are no strangers to running up the score, especially in front of their home crowd. It isn’t much of a problem to take chances when Vasilevskiy is your goaltender, as he can minimize the errors made defensively. Igor Shesterkin is playing lights-out hockey right now, and the Rangers have showcased they can score on the road. Let’s go with the over (O 5.5, +110) and hope history repeats between these two high-offensive teams.

Game Props

In five home games spread across two series, the Lightning have registered over 31 shots in three of them. With the amount of firepower they possess, it’s not hard to see why they produce so many shots on goal. Given the fact that they’re down 2-0 against the Rangers, they’ll do everything possible to get their fans jumping out of their seats. The over/under for Shesterkin’s total shots faced (O 31.5, -120) looks like a real possibility, and we’re going with the over. Tampa Bay has recorded over 31 shots in both instances of Game 3 this year, so look for them to repeat that once more.

Odds via Yahoo and BetMGM.

The Hockey Writers & THWBets promotes responsible gaming, and provides this content as opinion and analysis with no guarantees or assurances.For more information about responsible gambling, including help for problem gambling behaviour, please visit these great resource pages:If you’re in Canada, Rogers Sports & Media has put together a great information and resources page.If you’re in the United States, MGMResorts has a great page for gambling problem resources.

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